Beware of the Situation in the Crimea

Crimea

Tomorrow is the vote on whether or not Crimea will stay part of the Ukraine or join Russia.  Personally, I think the election has already been decided, and that what occurs tomorrow is just a formality.  The Russians have already decided the results of the vote.

Several things have occurred that make me think that we may face some serious problems as a result of this action.  The Drudge News indicates that Russia has been pulling billions of dollars out of western banks, because they are concerned about possible sanctions.

Sherbank and VTB large Russian banks that are partly owned by the government and other state owned enterprises are among the companies pulling money out.  This indicates to me that the Russian Government may be expecting sanctions.

In the last few days there have been several news items showing that Russian troops have been massing along the eastern Ukraine border.  At the same time, there have been more civil disruptions in areas of the Ukraine that have a large Russian population.

This morning there are reports that Russian troops backed by helicopter gunships and armored vehicles have occupied a village and a natural gas distribution station in Ukrainian that is outside of the Crimea.  There has also been additional violence in Kharkiv and Donetsk two towns in eastern Ukraine.  At least two people were reported shot in Kharkiv.

There have been some reports that Kerry has given Russia some type of ultimatum to pull back by Monday or we would take some unspecified action against them.  This is presumed to be sanctions not military action.

I believe that the Crimea is a done deal the Russians will keep it.  In addition, Russia may very well occupy the eastern Ukraine which will result in heavy sanctions.  This may result in Russia cutting of gas and oil to Europe.

Now you may be wondering how this can impact us.  First, if sanctions are applied it will affect us economically and may put us into a economic war.  If the Chinese come in on the Russian side, they will have the ability to destroy our economy.

Any Sanctions that are applied will affect the economies of Europe and the United States enough to at least cause some unemployment and worst case could result in a TEOTWAWKI situation.

For the next few days, stay alert and don’t be distracted by the missing plane that the news media’s are focusing on.

Howard

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2 Responses to Beware of the Situation in the Crimea

  1. Common Sense says:

    This is a troubling situation, however I think you are leaving out some key points. The primary concern over China, is that they could cripple the US economy if they wanted, but have no reason to. The investment and workforce in China which is based on the US economy functioning is too great. It will hurt them more to destroy Western economies than to simply invest in them and take monetary control (as they are currently doing, they own a significant amount of US debt).

    There are also a lot of pieces that aren’t black and white. I do expect some sanctions, however there is a strong Russian population in Crimea- one which would prefer to be Russian and have a much stronger GDP than they currently do. Corruption is rampant, and many people want a less corrupt Russian economy, rather than one controlled by oligarchs as they currently have to deal with.

    There is also the fact that Crimea was given away during the Cold War, when it didn’t matter as the USSR essentially controlled everything anyway. After the Cold War, not everyone wanted to be separate from Russia.

    That said, the situation is still one we should all be concerned about and watch closely.

  2. Security Guy says:

    About mid this last week a press release came out of China that any sanctions brought against Russia will be responded in kind against the ones backing the sanctions. So if the USA and EU bring economic sanctions against Russia, China will call for the same against the USA and EU. If it would go military it would be a similar response. The statement was made not long after Merkel’s speech this week about the Ukraine.

    Whether we like it or not we are bound by treaty to back the Ukraine. The treaty came about at the end of the Cold War in order to encourage the Ukraine to hand over the nukes they inherited from the USSR, which they did. This whole situation stinks from start to finish. The “west” (banksters, etc..) started the coup against the russian friendly Ukrainian government. Putin took advantage to seize territory and resources to look stronger at home. The new Ukrainian government will be just as corrupt as the old and will not be a democracy in action. Of course, it won’t be any more corrupt than Russia’s, the EU’s, or ours. I still think the most likely scenario of the ones I gave earlier is the one that will bring us Hillary the peace maker. Especially with McCain pushing for a US military response right now.

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